2015 UK Volume Predictions

By Sam Griffiths on 23rd December 2014

For a bit of festive fun, we’ve used the current growth trajectory of the Liberum AltFi Volume Index and its constituents to arrive at some volume predictions for 2015.

2015 UK Volume Predictions

Our predictions in full can be seen in the table below. Highlights include:

  • A change in the largest platform by cumulative volume by the end of the year with Funding Circle just taking the crown from Zopa.
  • The largest three platforms, Funding Circle, RateSetter and Zopa will all have lent more (or be very, very close to lending more) than £1bn by the end of the year.
  • The industry will see 85% year on year (y-o-y) growth with 2015 volumes approaching £3bn.
  • The platform that we tip to grow the most on a percentage basis is LendingWorks, with a staggering 567% y-o-y growth prediction (albeit from a low base) on the basis of their recent strong origination.

Of course, determining what will happen in 2015 in such a fast evolving industry is not easy. Platforms are constantly innovating, launching new product lines and tweaking their business models (Assetz Capital’s foray into the invoice finance space and RateSetter’s repositioning as a multi asset class platform are just two very recent examples) in a bid for growth and increased profitability. It is impossible to know what these innovations will be and how they will be received, it is therefore likely that there will be significant variance in these predictions versus actual volume for some platforms. For example, there is very little chance that anyone (apart from perhaps Wellesley themselves) could have predicted Wellesley’s 3,760% growth this year!

We hope that our prediction for the industry volume as a whole, tracked by the Liberum AltFi Volume Index, will prove more accurate.  However, there are still significant limitations - the methodology employed extrapolates historical trends, which cannot always be relied upon to predict future events. There are also several ‘known unknowns’ (such as ISA inclusion, institutional participation and platform M&A) that will become apparent in 2015 and could radically affect origination volumes.

We’ll take a look at the end of 2015 to see how well our predictions hold up. In the meantime, the team at AltFi Data would like to thank everyone for their help and support this year and wish everyone a great Christmas and a successful and prosperous New Year.

 

Actual Origination Volume 2014 (£m to 22nd Dec)

AltFi Data 2015 Volume Prediction (£m)

Predicted Year on Year Growth

Liberum AltFi Volume Index

1,538

2,850

85%

P2P Consumer Lenders

     

RateSetter

287

540

88%

Zopa

259

400

54%

Lending Works

4.5

30

567%

Funding Secure

2.0

4.0

100%

P2P Business Lenders

     

Funding Circle

271

680

151%

Wellesley & Co.

135

215

59%

LendInvest

142

195

37%

Assetz Capital

43

55

28%

Folk 2 Folk

23

43

87%

ThinCats

38

33

-13%

Saving Stream

14

30

114%

Crowdcube MiniBonds

4.5

15

233%

UK Bond Network

3.0

10

233%

FundingKnight

6.0

9.0

50%

Abundance Generation

4.5

9.0

100%

Money&Co

3.5

5.5

57%

Rebuildingsociety

3.0

4.5

50%

Relendex

1.0

3.0

200%

Online Invoice Financing

     

Market Invoice

206

315

53%

Platform Black

43

23

-47%

Equity Crowdfunding

     

Crowdcube

29

75

159%

Syndicate Room

15

24

60%

Crowdbnk*

2.0

10

400%

Comments

Mike Mc

15 Jul 2015 01:03pm

What are the options if you want to sue internationally? A problem in this business is international clients can get away with more and not pay.

AltFi Amsterdam Summit 2018

AltFi is returning to Amsterdam for its second annual Summit in the city. The inaugural event last year was a roaring success, with key figures from across Continental Europe's alternative finance and digital banking sectors highlighted. These included Jeroen Broekema, managing director of Funding Circle Netherlands, and Mieke van Engelen, head of innovative partnerships at ABN AMRO's standalone lending platform, New10.

5th November 2018


Companies in this Article:

Funding Circle
AltFi Data
RateSetter
Crowdcube
Assetz Capital
Zopa
Liberum
Circle

People in this Article: