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2016: A Booming P2P Market for Continental Europe?

By Sukhwinder Shoker on 11th January 2016

The Liberum AltFi Volume Index (Continental Europe) has demonstrated the strong growth being achieved in European marketplace lending delivering YoY growth that exceeded 100% by 2015 year end.  AltFi Data has used historic data to project the likely shape of origination volume in 2016. 

Whilst the 2016 predictions below serve as useful indicators to determine likely growth and origination volume we must signal a small note of caution. Innovation, partnerships between platforms and incumbent banks, increased M&A activity, not to mention possible macro-economic factors, all add to the dangers of making predictions using only extrapolation. That said the predictions that we made last year based off an extrapolation of the UK  Liberum AltFi Volume Index was reasonably accurate with an out-turn of £2.806bn versus our prediction of £2.85bn. 

Note also that in certain cases, where platforms chose to update the Liberum AltFi Volume Index (Continental Europe) on just a monthly basis, a less smooth input will result in a lower quality of extrapolated result. However this is only the case for a handful of platforms in the index.

What we expect to see in 2016:

  • Auxmoney will remain the largest platform for continental Europe Peer-to-Peer consumer lending and the index as a whole.
  • The YoY growth for the index will be an astounding 104.8%.
  • 41% of index participants will experience YoY growth in excess of 200%. Twino will have the highest YoY growth of all the platforms currently in the index - 567%.
  • Funding Circle Continental Europe will overtake Geldvoorelkaar by year end as the leading platform facilitating marketplace business lending in Continental Europe.
  • Finexkap will rise through the rankings to become the third largest net lender to businesses in the in index.
 

Actual Origination Volume 2015 (€m)

AltFi Data 2016 Volume Prediction (€m)

YoY Growth

Liberum AltFi Volume Index

674

1380

104.75%

P2P Consumer

     

Auxmoney*

290

430

48%

Bondora

20

48

140%

Prestiamoci*

1

2

150%

Pret D'Union

130

255

96%

Smartika*

5

11

120%

Fixura*

13

30

131%

Finansowo

2

5.0

150%

Kokos*

4

10

150%

Zlty Melon

2

5

150%

Mintos

12

40

233%

Fellow Finance

18

55

206%

Twino

3

20

567%

Savy

3

15

400%

P2P Business Lenders

     

Lendahand*

3

10

233%

LoanBook

4

10

150%

Unilend

9

20

122%

Geldvoorelkaar*

27

60

122%

Comunitae

12

30

150%

Funding Circle Continental Europe

44

135

207%

Lendix

11

40

264%

EstateGuru

4

20

400%

Invoice Financing

     

Finexkap

15

50

233%

Comments

Hubert

07 Feb 2016 07:31pm

I Can anyone explain me how come Twino model that is selling loans for 14000% (14 thousand%) to borrowers and then guaranteeing a return for lenders of 14% can be considered a P2P lending platform? Isn't it just aquiring cheap funding for it's own payday activity? Where is the P2P element here?

Marc Domenech

19 Jan 2016 11:06am

Another P2P Business lender in Spain is Arboribus with 4,8m€ in 2015 and a budget for 2016 about 14m€ Thanks!


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