Our predictions in full can be seen in the table below. Highlights include:
A change in the largest platform by cumulative volume by the end of the year with
just taking the crown from
.
The largest three platforms, Funding Circle,
and Zopa will all have lent more (or be very, very close to lending more) than £1bn by the end of the year.
The industry will see 85% year on year (y-o-y) growth with 2015 volumes approaching £3bn.
The platform that we tip to grow the most on a percentage basis is
, with a staggering 567% y-o-y growth prediction (albeit from a low base) on the basis of their recent strong origination.
Of course, determining what will happen in 2015 in such a fast evolving industry is not easy. Platforms are constantly innovating, launching new product lines and tweaking their business models (Assetz Capital’s foray into the invoice finance space and RateSetter’s repositioning as a multi asset class platform are just two very recent examples) in a bid for growth and increased profitability. It is impossible to know what these innovations will be and how they will be received, it is therefore likely that there will be significant variance in these predictions versus actual volume for some platforms. For example, there is very little chance that anyone (apart from perhaps Wellesley themselves) could have predicted Wellesley’s 3,760% growth this year!
We hope that our prediction for the industry volume as a whole, tracked by the Liberum AltFi Volume Index, will prove more accurate. However, there are still significant limitations - the methodology employed extrapolates historical trends, which cannot always be relied upon to predict future events. There are also several ‘known unknowns’ (such as ISA inclusion, institutional participation and platform M&A) that will become apparent in 2015 and could radically affect origination volumes.
We’ll take a look at the end of 2015 to see how well our predictions hold up. In the meantime, the team at AltFi Data would like to thank everyone for their help and support this year and wish everyone a great Christmas and a successful and prosperous New Year.
Actual Origination Volume 2014 (£m to 22nd Dec)
AltFi Data 2015 Volume Prediction (£m)
Predicted Year on Year Growth
Liberum AltFi Volume Index
1,538
2,850
85%
P2P Consumer Lenders
RateSetter
287
540
88%
Zopa
259
400
54%
Lending Works
4.5
30
567%
Funding Secure
2.0
4.0
100%
P2P Business Lenders
Funding Circle
271
680
151%
Wellesley & Co.
135
215
59%
LendInvest
142
195
37%
Assetz Capital
43
55
28%
Folk 2 Folk
23
43
87%
ThinCats
38
33
-13%
Saving Stream
14
30
114%
Crowdcube MiniBonds
4.5
15
233%
UK Bond Network
3.0
10
233%
FundingKnight
6.0
9.0
50%
Abundance Generation
4.5
9.0
100%
Money&Co
3.5
5.5
57%
Rebuildingsociety
3.0
4.5
50%
Relendex
1.0
3.0
200%
Online Invoice Financing
Market Invoice
206
315
53%
Platform Black
43
23
-47%
Equity Crowdfunding
Crowdcube
29
75
159%
Syndicate Room
15
24
60%
Crowdbnk*
2.0
10
400%
