Examining the industry’s growth trajectory we find that it has increased marginally since December. Using the same methodology as we used in December, we now believe that the UK industry is on track to originate £3bn of financing in 2015, an uplift of just over 5% on our original estimate. This will mean that the industry will be originating over £300m of finance every month by the end of the year. Year to date volume for the sector currently stands at £1.101bn, 38.7% of our £2.85bn prediction for the full year.
Our overall prediction is therefore proving to be close to the mark. However we were always more cautious about our predictions for the individual platforms, acknowledging that the volumes of some platforms were likely to beat our estimates by a fair margin and that others might end up falling some way short.
We’ve put together a table below of the platforms’ year-to-date performance against our estimate. The platforms in the table are ordered by their year to date volume as a percentage of our prediction. There is also a column that gives the difference between a platform’s performance and the overall industry’s performance.
AltFi Data 2015 Volume Prediction as at 23rd Dec 2014 (£m)
YTD as % of 2015e
Differential
Funding Secure
4
104.03%
65.38%
Funding Knight
9
93.59%
54.94%
ThinCats
33
77.80%
39.15%
Saving Stream
30
76.92%
38.26%
LendInvest
195
64.99%
26.34%
Zopa
400
47.53%
8.88%
Platform Black
23
45.14%
6.48%
Rebuildingsociety
4.5
41.51%
2.86%
RateSetter
540
40.37%
1.71%
Folk 2 Folk
43
40.21%
1.56%
Wellesley & Co.
215
40.17%
1.51%
Crowdcube
75
39.04%
0.38%
Liberum AltFi Volume Index
2,850
38.65%
0.00%
Syndicate Room
24
36.58%
-2.07%
Assetz Capital
55
34.98%
-3.67%
Market Invoice
315
34.37%
-4.29%
Funding Circle
680
29.01%
-9.64%
Money&Co
9
26.35%
-12.30%
Relendex
3
24.67%
-13.99%
Crowdcube MiniBonds
15
22.43%
-16.23%
Lending Works
30
16.48%
-22.17%
Abundance Generation
9
16.32%
-22.34%
Crowdbnk
10
15.72%
-22.93%
UK Bond Network
10
11.50%
-27.15%
Those platforms that are at the top of the table have seen their growth trajectory increase, whilst those platforms that are towards the bottom of the table have seen a slow down in growth.
So with just over six months to go will the likes of Funding Secure and Funding Knight sustain their acceleration in growth, or will Lending Works and UK Bond Network manage to get back on track? We will be back at year end for a full review.
