The Volume Winners and Losers of 2015 thus far...

By Sam Griffiths on 15th June 2015

At the end of December last year, AltFi Data put together a series of volume predictions for the UK industry in 2015. The predictions were based on the recent growth of each platform and were calculated using a regression methodology. With almost half of 2015 now behind us, we felt that it was a good time to revisit these predictions.

The Volume Winners and Losers of 2015 thus far...

Examining the industry’s growth trajectory we find that it has increased marginally since December. Using the same methodology as we used in December, we now believe that the UK industry is on track to originate £3bn of financing in 2015, an uplift of just over 5% on our original estimate. This will mean that the industry will be originating over £300m of finance every month by the end of the year. Year to date volume for the sector currently stands at £1.101bn, 38.7% of our £2.85bn prediction for the full year.

Our overall prediction is therefore proving to be close to the mark. However we were always more cautious about our predictions for the individual platforms, acknowledging that the volumes of some platforms were likely to beat our estimates by a fair margin and that others might end up falling some way short.

We’ve put together a table below of the platforms’ year-to-date performance against our estimate. The platforms in the table are ordered by their year to date volume as a percentage of our prediction. There is also a column that gives the difference between a platform’s performance and the overall industry’s performance.

 

AltFi Data 2015 Volume Prediction as at 23rd Dec 2014 (£m)

YTD as % of 2015e

Differential

Funding Secure

 4

104.03%

65.38%

Funding Knight

 9

93.59%

54.94%

ThinCats

 33

77.80%

39.15%

Saving Stream

 30

76.92%

38.26%

LendInvest

 195

64.99%

26.34%

Zopa

 400

47.53%

8.88%

Platform Black

 23

45.14%

6.48%

Rebuildingsociety

 4.5

41.51%

2.86%

RateSetter

 540

40.37%

1.71%

Folk 2 Folk

 43

40.21%

1.56%

Wellesley & Co.

 215

40.17%

1.51%

Crowdcube

 75

39.04%

0.38%

Liberum AltFi Volume Index

 2,850

38.65%

0.00%

Syndicate Room

 24

36.58%

-2.07%

Assetz Capital

 55

34.98%

-3.67%

Market Invoice

 315

34.37%

-4.29%

Funding Circle

 680

29.01%

-9.64%

Money&Co

 9

26.35%

-12.30%

Relendex

 3

24.67%

-13.99%

Crowdcube MiniBonds

 15

22.43%

-16.23%

Lending Works

 30

16.48%

-22.17%

Abundance Generation

 9

16.32%

-22.34%

Crowdbnk

 10

15.72%

-22.93%

UK Bond Network

 10

11.50%

-27.15%

Those platforms that are at the top of the table have seen their growth trajectory increase, whilst those platforms that are towards the bottom of the table have seen a slow down in growth.

So with just over six months to go will the likes of Funding Secure and Funding Knight sustain their acceleration in growth, or will Lending Works and UK Bond Network manage to get back on track?  We will be back at year end for a full review.  

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Companies in this Article:

UK Bond Network
Funding Secure
Funding Knight
Lending Works
Brismo
Crowdcube
Assetz Capital
Liberum

People in this Article: